Sport Picks
UD Alaro vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
Spain
Tercera Division - Group 11 2014/2015 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera Division - Group 11 2014/2015 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
20%
80%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: El Espinar Sant Rafel
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to El Espinar Sant Rafel lately — more wins on the board than UD Alaro.
- El Espinar Sant Rafel are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Tercera Division - Group 11 2014/2015 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
UD Alaro Clean Sheet 17%
El Espinar Sant Rafel Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UD Alaro | El Espinar Sant Rafel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 21 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.37 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 13, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs UD Alaro
0:0
Nov 1, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Alaro vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
1:2
Jan 25, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Alaro vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
2:2
Sep 7, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs UD Alaro
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UD Alaro 23 / 100
El Espinar Sant Rafel 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UD Alaro El Espinar Sant Rafel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick El Espinar Sant Rafel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
El Espinar Sant Rafel has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.
El Espinar Sant Rafel's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
UD Alaro scored in 33% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS El Espinar Sant Rafel
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
UD Alaro
(Home) 15 May
Collerense
3 : 0 UD Alaro
07 May
UD Alaro
0 : 4 Alcudia
29 Apr
UD Poblense
4 : 0 UD Alaro
24 Apr
UD Alaro
0 : 1 Mercadal
17 Apr
Formentera
3 : 0 UD Alaro
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07 May
UD Alaro
0 : 4 Alcudia
24 Apr
UD Alaro
0 : 1 Mercadal
09 Apr
UD Alaro
1 : 2 Ferriolense
19 Mar
UD Alaro
0 : 1 CD Montuiri
01 Mar
UD Alaro
0 : 1 Esporles
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El Espinar Sant Rafel
(Away) 27 Sept
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 5 Prat
01 May
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 1 Murense
24 Apr
Platges de Calvia
5 : 0 El Espinar Sant Rafel
14 Apr
El Espinar Sant Rafel
2 : 3 Rotlet Molinar
10 Apr
PE Sant Jordi
2 : 2 El Espinar Sant Rafel
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24 Apr
Platges de Calvia
5 : 0 El Espinar Sant Rafel
10 Apr
PE Sant Jordi
2 : 2 El Espinar Sant Rafel
27 Mar
UD Poblense
1 : 2 El Espinar Sant Rafel
16 Mar
Collerense
2 : 1 El Espinar Sant Rafel
12 Mar
Llosetense
1 : 0 El Espinar Sant Rafel
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Formentera | 38 | 20 | 13 | 5 | 41:13 | 73 |
| 2 | Llosetense | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 66:35 | 72 |
| 3 | Pena Deportiva | 38 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 57:40 | 72 |
| 4 | Mercadal | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 64:32 | 67 |
| 5 | Constancia | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 64:42 | 66 |
| 6 | UD Poblense | 38 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 64:37 | 66 |
| 7 | Binissalem | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 63:33 | 66 |
| 8 | Soller | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 52:54 | 53 |
| 9 | Penya Ciutadella Esportiva | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 43:50 | 50 |
| 10 | El Espinar Sant Rafel | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 45:43 | 48 |
| 11 | CD Montuiri | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 49:58 | 45 |
| 12 | Campos | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 34:44 | 43 |
| 13 | Collerense | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 42:52 | 43 |
| 14 | UD Alaro | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 44:55 | 42 |
| 15 | Alcudia | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 32:52 | 42 |
| 16 | Ferriolense | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 39:50 | 41 |
| 17 | Platges de Calvia | 38 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 32:41 | 41 |
| 18 | CD Son Cladera | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30:65 | 35 |
| 19 | Manacor | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 36:65 | 31 |
| 20 | Atletico Rafal | 38 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 37:73 | 26 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2014/2015 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2014/2015 (Main)
