Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta

3 - 1

Alaves C

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Ortiz A.

37'

Gomes L.

54'

Barriga J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between UD Aretxabaleta and Alaves C finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD Aretxabaleta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

UD Aretxabaleta

11%

Draws

80%

Alaves C

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Alaves C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Alaves C carry the better recent record into this one.
Win probability leans Alaves C's way, sitting at 80%.
Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

Alaves C Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD Aretxabaleta	Alaves C
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	14
Draws	5	8
Losses	14	8
Goals Scored	1.38	2.13
Goals Conceded	2.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Alaves C

Possession: 49% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 49% - 45% Cards: 4 - 0

1:2

Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Alaves C

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortiz A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gomes L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Barriga J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Aretxabaleta 10 / 100

Alaves C 74 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD Aretxabaleta Alaves C

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD Aretxabaleta scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Alaves C conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: UD Aretxabaleta stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD Aretxabaleta VS Alaves C

1.38 Goals Scored 2.13

2.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 100%

88% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25