Sport Picks
UD Aretxabaleta vs Derio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 
Match Events
25'
25'
Ibarrondo Martinez M.
56'
56'
Santamaria A.
81'
81'
Egileor
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Derio in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- UD Aretxabaleta haven't matched Derio's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Derio have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 68%
Derio Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UD Aretxabaleta | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.53 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Derio
1:2
Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Derio
1:2
Oct 31, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs UD Aretxabaleta
1:0
Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs UD Aretxabaleta
2:0
Nov 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Derio
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UD Aretxabaleta Compare
Top Goalscorer Ibarrondo Martinez M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Derio Compare
Top Goalscorer Santamaria A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UD Aretxabaleta 41 / 100
Derio 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UD Aretxabaleta Derio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UD Aretxabaleta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: UD Aretxabaleta scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Derio let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
UD Aretxabaleta went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
UD Aretxabaleta VS Derio
1 Goals Scored 0.63
0.43 Goals Conceded 1
43% Over 1.5 50%
43% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
UD Aretxabaleta
(Home) 03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2 UD Aretxabaleta
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2 Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0 UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0 Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1 UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2 Derio
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0 Beasain
22 Aug
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 0 Mirandes B
09 May
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 1 Zamudio
26 Apr
UD Aretxabaleta
2 : 5 Real Sociedad C
Page 1 of 3
Derio
(Away) 04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0 Beasain
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2 Derio
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0 Santurtzi
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5 Salamanca CF UDS
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1 Derio
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2 Derio
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1 Derio
09 Sept
Compostela
1 : 2 Derio
22 Aug
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
1 : 1 Derio
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0 Derio
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad C | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring KE | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 7 | UD Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:3 | 8 |
| 8 | Alaves C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11:6 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 7 |
| 10 | SCD Durango | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 | SD Erandio | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:6 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Union B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:11 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2:7 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1:12 | 1 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)
