Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta

2 - 2

Portugalete

Our Tip

Match Events

13'

Lasa Sanz J.

26'

Recio I.

44'

Artola I.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between UD Aretxabaleta and Portugalete finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

UD Aretxabaleta

33%

Draws

40%

Portugalete

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Portugalete come out ahead of UD Aretxabaleta on wins alone.
Win probability leans Portugalete's way, sitting at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%

UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 11%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD Aretxabaleta	Portugalete
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	20
Draws	5	5
Losses	14	5
Goals Scored	1.5	1.88
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Portugalete

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

2:2

Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 1 - 3

3:2

May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs UD Aretxabaleta

Possession: 51% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Portugalete

Possession: 60% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Apr 25, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

UD Aretxabaleta vs Portugalete

Possession: 60% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Lasa Sanz J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Recio I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Artola I.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Aretxabaleta 27 / 100

Portugalete 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD Aretxabaleta Portugalete

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Aretxabaleta scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Portugalete let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

UD Aretxabaleta has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

UD Aretxabaleta VS Portugalete

1.5 Goals Scored 1.88

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 75%

88% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25