Sport Picks
UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 
Match Events
47'
47'
Iglesias F.
79'
79'
Alvarez D.
AI Match Summary
The Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between UD Ourense and Atletico Astorga finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
15%
57%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico Astorga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- UD Ourense carry the better recent record into this one.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Atletico Astorga taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 23%
Atletico Astorga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UD Ourense | Atletico Astorga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Atletico Astorga vs UD Ourense
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UD Ourense Compare
Top Goalscorer Iglesias F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Atletico Astorga Compare
Top Goalscorer Alvarez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UD Ourense 21 / 100
Atletico Astorga 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UD Ourense Atletico Astorga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico Astorga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
UD Ourense scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Atletico Astorga let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Atletico Astorga lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
UD Ourense VS Atletico Astorga
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
UD Ourense
(Home) 19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1 UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3 UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0 UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1 Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0 Barco
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3 UD Logrones
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1 Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0 Barco
24 May
UD Ourense
1 : 0 Conquense
16 May
UD Ourense
2 : 1 Reus FC Reddis
Page 1 of 3
Atletico Astorga
(Away) 19 Sept
Atletico Astorga
3 : 0 Marino De Luanco
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2 Atletico Astorga
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1 Portugalete
29 Aug
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1 Palencia CF
26 Aug
Atletico Astorga
2 : 1 Salamanca CF UDS
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2 Atletico Astorga
15 Aug
La Baneza
2 : 0 Atletico Astorga
03 May
UD Ourense
1 : 1 Atletico Astorga
12 Apr
Rayo Cantabria
3 : 2 Atletico Astorga
29 Mar
Deportivo Fabril
3 : 0 Atletico Astorga
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Fabril | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 59:22 | 69 |
| 2 | Real Oviedo B | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 50:35 | 58 |
| 3 | Numancia | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 46:31 | 56 |
| 4 | UD Ourense | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40:34 | 55 |
| 5 | Coruxo FC | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 46:37 | 52 |
| 6 | Gimnastica Segoviana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 37:36 | 51 |
| 7 | Real Avila | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 48:52 | 50 |
| 8 | Salamanca CF UDS | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 43:36 | 50 |
| 9 | Rayo Cantabria | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 63:50 | 48 |
| 10 | Bergantinos | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:37 | 48 |
| 11 | Atletico Astorga | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 41:43 | 45 |
| 12 | Marino De Luanco | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 31:26 | 45 |
| 13 | Valladolid Promesas | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 59:58 | 45 |
| 14 | Langreo | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35:41 | 43 |
| 15 | Sarriana | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 42:42 | 40 |
| 16 | Burgos CF B | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 38:55 | 36 |
| 17 | Lealtad | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31:54 | 28 |
| 18 | UD Samano | 34 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 23:87 | 15 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
