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UD Ourense vs UD Samano

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Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Migui
7' Event
Sanchez R.
40' Event
Ibanez J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between UD Ourense and UD Samano finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD Ourense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
UD Ourense
15%
Draws
21%
UD Samano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD Ourense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • UD Ourense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives UD Ourense a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 68%
UD Samano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense UD Samano
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 2
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 1.24 0.68
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.82
Expected Goals (xG) 2.04 0.66
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Ourense vs UD Samano
3:1
Jan 4, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Samano vs UD Ourense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Migui
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 1.02

UD Samano Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibanez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 77 / 100
UD Samano 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense UD Samano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Ourense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Samano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 96% of 28 matches.

UD Ourense scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: UD Samano has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS UD Samano
1.5 Goals Scored 0.57
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.57
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1
Ponferradina
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
08 Aug
Celta Vigo B
2 : 0
UD Ourense
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UD Samano

(Away)
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
03 May
UD Samano
0 : 5
Bergantinos
26 Apr
Marino De Luanco
4 : 1
UD Samano
19 Apr
UD Samano
0 : 3
Numancia
12 Apr
Langreo
4 : 1
UD Samano
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Fabril 34 20 9 5 59:22 69
2 Real Oviedo B 34 16 10 8 50:35 58
3 Numancia 34 15 11 8 46:31 56
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 40:34 55
5 Coruxo FC 34 15 7 12 46:37 52
6 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 14 9 11 37:36 51
7 Real Avila 34 14 8 12 48:52 50
8 Salamanca CF UDS 34 14 8 12 43:36 50
9 Rayo Cantabria 34 11 15 8 63:50 48
10 Bergantinos 34 13 9 12 44:37 48
11 Atletico Astorga 34 12 9 13 41:43 45
12 Marino De Luanco 34 11 12 11 31:26 45
13 Valladolid Promesas 34 12 9 13 59:58 45
14 Langreo 34 11 10 13 35:41 43
15 Sarriana 34 11 7 16 42:42 40
16 Burgos CF B 34 8 12 14 38:55 36
17 Lealtad 34 7 7 20 31:54 28
18 UD Samano 34 3 6 25 23:87 15
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)