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UD Ovarense vs Sousense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Cacheira L.
38' Event
Fonseca R.
81'
Lopes C.

AI Match Summary

UD Ovarense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Ovarense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
UD Ovarense
15%
Draws
7%
Sousense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD Ovarense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Ovarense lately — more wins on the board than Sousense.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on UD Ovarense taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
UD Ovarense Clean Sheet 20%
Sousense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ovarense Sousense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 6
Draws 3 4
Losses 17 19
Goals Scored 1.28 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
UD Ovarense vs Sousense
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Ovarense Compare

Top Goalscorer Cacheira L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fonseca R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Sousense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ovarense 85 / 100
Sousense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ovarense Sousense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Ovarense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sousense conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

UD Ovarense's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: UD Ovarense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Ovarense VS Sousense
2.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ovarense

(Home)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
Estrela Calheta
0 : 3
UD Ovarense
06 Sept
UD Ovarense
2 : 0
Sousense
23 Aug
UD Ovarense
1 : 0
Uniao Lamas
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
Page 1 of 6

Sousense

(Away)
13 Sept
Sousense
3 : 3
Uniao Lamas
06 Sept
UD Ovarense
2 : 0
Sousense
30 Aug
SC Salgueiros
2 : 1
Sousense
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Cinfaes
2 : 0
Sousense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Castro Daire 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
5 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
8 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)