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UD Poblense vs Murense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD Poblense play Murense in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022. UD Poblense are favorites here. Recently, UD Poblense averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Murense averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. In past meetings, UD Poblense won 4, Murense won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 8, 2022 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for UD Poblense and 0.81 for Murense. This points to a UD Poblense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
UD Poblense
16%
Draws
11%
Murense
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: UD Poblense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • UD Poblense picked up more points recently compared to Murense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
UD Poblense Clean Sheet 26%
Murense Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Poblense Murense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 2
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 23
Goals Scored 1.27 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.83 2.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Murense
4:0
Dec 8, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Murense vs UD Poblense
1:2
Apr 13, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Murense vs UD Poblense
2:3
Nov 18, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Murense
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Poblense 71 / 100
Murense 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Poblense Murense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Poblense Win (1)
Secondary Pick UD Poblense & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.4%
1.54
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UD Poblense attacking → ← attacking Murense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Poblense scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Murense let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

UD Poblense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Murense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 11
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mallorca B403253105:27101
2Manacor402641074:4282
3UD Poblense40248889:2480
4Platges de Calvia402211756:2777
5Llosetense40229962:3675
6Santanyi402361166:4675
7Constancia402091154:3869
8PE Sant Jordi402081257:4668
9Portmany4017111255:5162
10Collerense401771645:4958
11Soller401691546:5257
12Binissalem4013121540:4451
13Mercadal4011121754:5145
14Inter Ibiza401272151:6243
15Rotlet Molinar401192035:5342
16El Espinar Sant Rafel4010102048:6440
17Campos4010102038:6440
18Felanitx409112043:6538
19Serverense40872535:7431
20Murense40582731:7623
21Son Veri40433328:12115