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UD San Fernando vs Estrella - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Serbourdin S.
30'
Vega R.
30'
Vega R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 game between UD San Fernando and Estrella finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD San Fernando.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
UD San Fernando
15%
Draws
37%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD San Fernando

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • UD San Fernando carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans UD San Fernando's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • UD San Fernando have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 20%
Estrella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD San Fernando Estrella
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 20 8
Draws 9 10
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.54 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.65 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Estrella
3:0
Mar 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs UD San Fernando
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Estrella
6:1
Mar 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs UD San Fernando
1:3
Nov 25, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Estrella
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Serbourdin S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez Alonso J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.82

Estrella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Fernando 85 / 100
Estrella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD San Fernando Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD San Fernando found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (35 games).

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Estrella let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: UD San Fernando stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UD San Fernando VS Estrella
1.5 Goals Scored 1.2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.8
75% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

UD San Fernando

(Home)
04 Oct
UD San Fernando
3 : 0
Estrella
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0
UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0
UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3
UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3
Orihuela
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Estrella

(Away)
04 Oct
UD San Fernando
3 : 0
Estrella
25 Sept
Estrella
1 : 1
Las Palmas C
19 Sept
San Bartolome
4 : 2
Estrella
12 Sept
Estrella
3 : 1
Villaverde Norte
11 May
Estrella
2 : 1
Herbania
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 San Miguel 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
2 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 11:2 9
3 Real Union Tenerife 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
4 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
5 Las Palmas C 5 2 2 1 9:6 8
6 San Bartolome 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
7 CD Marino 4 2 1 1 12:6 7
8 Panaderia 4 2 1 1 10:8 7
9 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
10 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 5:4 6
11 Villa Santa Brigida 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
12 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 6:8 4
13 Estrella 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Anaza 5 1 1 3 5:10 4
15 Union Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 4:6 3
16 CD Laguna 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
18 UD Playas de Sotavento 4 0 1 3 3:15 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 (Play Offs)