Sport Picks
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 
Match Events
70'
70'
Edu Salles
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between UD San Fernando and Panaderia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD San Fernando.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Panaderia haven't matched UD San Fernando's recent run of results.
- UD San Fernando are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 68%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UD San Fernando | Panaderia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.69 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:2
May 16, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:2
Mar 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:0
Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UD San Fernando Compare
Top Goalscorer Edu Salles
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Panaderia Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UD San Fernando 86 / 100
Panaderia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UD San Fernando Panaderia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
UD San Fernando scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Panaderia has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
UD San Fernando went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
UD San Fernando VS Panaderia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
UD San Fernando
(Home) 26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0 UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0 UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3 UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3 Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1 Tamaraceite
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0 UD Playas de Sotavento
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3 Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1 Tamaraceite
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
03 May
UD San Fernando
5 : 0 Tenerife C
Page 1 of 3
Panaderia
(Away) 26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0 Panaderia
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3 Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2 Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2 UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0 Panaderia
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2 Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1 Panaderia
22 Apr
Las Palmas C
1 : 0 Panaderia
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Paso | 34 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 51:19 | 67 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 49:23 | 66 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51:31 | 63 |
| 4 | Tamaraceite | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 56:36 | 63 |
| 5 | Panaderia | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 47:33 | 55 |
| 6 | Las Palmas C | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58:42 | 54 |
| 7 | Tenerife C | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 49:46 | 52 |
| 8 | Villa Santa Brigida | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:36 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Union Tenerife | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:32 | 45 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37:43 | 39 |
| 12 | CD Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44:40 | 39 |
| 13 | Union Sur Yaiza | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:43 | 38 |
| 14 | San Bartolome | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30:55 | 36 |
| 15 | Arucas | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 31:47 | 33 |
| 16 | Herbania | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39:58 | 32 |
| 17 | SD Tenisca | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:68 | 25 |
| 18 | Telde | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 30:71 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
