Sport Picks
UD San Fernando vs Union Sur Yaiza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 
Match Events
28'
28'
Rodriguez Alonso J.
40'
40'
Quintero F.
55'
55'
Martel J.
AI Match Summary
UD San Fernando in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD San Fernando.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD San Fernando
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to UD San Fernando lately — more wins on the board than Union Sur Yaiza.
- UD San Fernando are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.4%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 68%
Union Sur Yaiza Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | UD San Fernando | Union Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 6 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.65 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs UD San Fernando
2:0
Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Union Sur Yaiza
3:0
Nov 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs UD San Fernando
0:1
Apr 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Union Sur Yaiza
0:2
Dec 3, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs UD San Fernando
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
UD San Fernando Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez Alonso J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Quintero F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Union Sur Yaiza Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
UD San Fernando 95 / 100
Union Sur Yaiza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
UD San Fernando Union Sur Yaiza
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
UD San Fernando's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Union Sur Yaiza has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Recent resilience: UD San Fernando stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
UD San Fernando VS Union Sur Yaiza
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
UD San Fernando
(Home) 04 Oct
UD San Fernando
3 : 0 Estrella
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0 UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0 UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3 UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3 Orihuela
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
UD San Fernando
3 : 0 Estrella
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0 UD Playas de Sotavento
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3 Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1 Tamaraceite
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2 Panaderia
Page 1 of 4
Union Sur Yaiza
(Away) 03 Oct
Los Llanos
1 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0 UD San Fernando
19 Sept
Las Palmas C
4 : 2 Union Sur Yaiza
11 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
0 : 1 San Bartolome
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Los Llanos
1 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
19 Sept
Las Palmas C
4 : 2 Union Sur Yaiza
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
26 Apr
CD Marino
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
11 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1 Union Sur Yaiza
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Paso | 34 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 51:19 | 67 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 49:23 | 66 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51:31 | 63 |
| 4 | Tamaraceite | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 56:36 | 63 |
| 5 | Panaderia | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 47:33 | 55 |
| 6 | Las Palmas C | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58:42 | 54 |
| 7 | Tenerife C | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 49:46 | 52 |
| 8 | Villa Santa Brigida | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:36 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Union Tenerife | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:32 | 45 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37:43 | 39 |
| 12 | CD Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44:40 | 39 |
| 13 | Union Sur Yaiza | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:43 | 38 |
| 14 | San Bartolome | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30:55 | 36 |
| 15 | Arucas | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 31:47 | 33 |
| 16 | Herbania | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39:58 | 32 |
| 17 | SD Tenisca | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:68 | 25 |
| 18 | Telde | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 30:71 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
