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UD San Pedro vs Motril

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD San Pedro play Motril in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. It looks like a close match. Recently, UD San Pedro averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1 conceded. Motril averaged 1.52 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. In past meetings, UD San Pedro won 2, Motril won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for UD San Pedro and 0.88 for Motril. This points to a UD San Pedro double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
UD San Pedro
31%
Draws
34%
Motril
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: UD San Pedro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • UD San Pedro picked up more points recently compared to Motril.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
UD San Pedro Clean Sheet 25%
Motril Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD San Pedro Motril
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 13
Draws 10 12
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.23 1.52
Goals Conceded 1 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
UD San Pedro vs Motril
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs UD San Pedro
3:3
Apr 24, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs UD San Pedro
4:0
Dec 19, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
UD San Pedro vs Motril
0:1
Mar 10, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
UD San Pedro vs Motril
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Pedro Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrew
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ortega A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Pedro 37 / 100
Motril 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD San Pedro Motril

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UD San Pedro or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UD San Pedro attacking → ← attacking Motril

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD San Pedro scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Motril let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

UD San Pedro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Motril lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 51
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327