Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Hamz Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Mugulusi I.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Uganda Revenue and Lugazi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Uganda Revenue.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Uganda Revenue
39%
Draws
31%
Lugazi
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Lugazi haven't matched Uganda Revenue's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Uganda Revenue have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Uganda Revenue Clean Sheet 68%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Revenue Lugazi
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 8 5
Draws 15 10
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.75 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi
1:0
Oct 22, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Uganda Revenue
0:0
May 6, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Uganda Revenue
0:1
Dec 19, 2024 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Revenue Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugulusi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Lugazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda Revenue 41 / 100
Lugazi 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Revenue Lugazi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick URA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugazi has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Uganda Revenue remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Uganda Revenue scored in 50% of their last 34 outings.

Historical meetings average 0.75 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Uganda Revenue VS Lugazi
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda Revenue

(Home)
22 May
Buhimba
0 : 3
Uganda Revenue
19 May
Uganda Revenue
0 : 0
Kampala City
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
12 May
Uganda Revenue
1 : 1
Calvary
08 May
Vipers
1 : 1
Uganda Revenue
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Lugazi

(Away)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Express FC
0 : 0
Lugazi
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
06 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Mbarara City
29 Apr
Buhimba
0 : 2
Lugazi
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)