Sport Picks

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Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Hamz Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Mugulusi I.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Uganda Revenue and Lugazi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Uganda Revenue.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Uganda Revenue
15%
Draws
39%
Lugazi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Uganda Revenue

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Lugazi haven't matched Uganda Revenue's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Uganda Revenue a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Uganda Revenue have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Uganda Revenue Clean Sheet 68%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Revenue Lugazi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.03 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi
1:0
Oct 22, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Uganda Revenue
0:0
May 6, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Uganda Revenue
0:1
Dec 19, 2024 Premier League
Uganda Revenue vs Lugazi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Revenue Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugulusi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Lugazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda Revenue 59 / 100
Lugazi 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Revenue Lugazi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Revenue Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugazi has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Uganda Revenue remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Lugazi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Uganda Revenue found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Uganda Revenue VS Lugazi
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda Revenue

(Home)
15 Sept
NEC FC
4 : 1
Uganda Revenue
04 Sept
Uganda Revenue
0 : 1
Villa
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
22 May
Buhimba
0 : 3
Uganda Revenue
19 May
Uganda Revenue
0 : 0
Kampala City
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Lugazi

(Away)
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
09 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
0 : 1
Lugazi
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)