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Uganda vs D.R. Congo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International FNB Training Pitch, Johannesburg
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Mbuku N.
90' Event
Bogere J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Uganda
30%
Draws
33%
D.R. Congo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to D.R. Congo lately — more wins on the board than Uganda.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Uganda Clean Sheet 68%
D.R. Congo Clean Sheet 21%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda D.R. Congo
Matches Played 26 33
Wins 11 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Friendly International
Uganda vs D.R. Congo
1:1
Oct 2, 2026 Friendly International
D.R. Congo vs Uganda
0:2
Jun 14, 2023 Friendly International
D.R. Congo vs Uganda
1:0
Jan 14, 2023 African Nations Championship
D.R. Congo vs Uganda
0:0
Jun 22, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations
D.R. Congo vs Uganda
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogere J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

D.R. Congo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbuku N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 41 / 100
D.R. Congo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda D.R. Congo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Solid form: Uganda remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

D.R. Congo let in goals in 58% of their last 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS D.R. Congo
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)
05 Oct
Uganda
1 : 1
D.R. Congo
02 Oct
D.R. Congo
0 : 2
Uganda
29 Sept
Uganda
1 : 0
Libya
24 Sept
Tunisia
1 : 1
Uganda
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
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D.R. Congo

(Away)
05 Oct
Uganda
1 : 1
D.R. Congo
02 Oct
D.R. Congo
0 : 2
Uganda
28 Sept
Zimbabwe
1 : 2
D.R. Congo
24 Sept
D.R. Congo
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
01 Jul
England
2 : 1
D.R. Congo
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