Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uganda vs Gambia

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stade de Marrakech, Marrakech
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Mato R.
45' Event
Manneh A.
(Penalty)
52'
Sub
Watenga I. In: Mutakubwa J.
Out: Watenga I.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Uganda and Gambia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Uganda
30%
Draws
54%
Gambia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gambia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Uganda have managed 1.27 goals a game lately — Gambia are scoring more at 1.59.
  • 16% — that's where the model lands on Uganda taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Uganda Clean Sheet 68%
Gambia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Gambia
Matches Played 22 27
Wins 9 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2025 Friendly International
Uganda vs Gambia
1:1
Jun 9, 2015 Friendly International
Uganda vs Gambia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mato R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gambia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 59 / 100
Gambia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Gambia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda scored in 77% of their last 22 games.

Defensive concern: Gambia conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Uganda has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS Gambia
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)
24 Sept
Tunisia
1 : 1
Uganda
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
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Gambia

(Away)
25 Sept
Gambia
2 : 1
Somalia
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
31 Mar
Senegal
3 : 1
Gambia
18 Nov
Kuwait
2 : 2
Gambia
14 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Gambia
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