Sport Picks

Uganda vs South Sudan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Nelson Mandela National Stadium, Kampala

Uganda

1 - 0

South Sudan

Our Tip

Match Events

44'

Thomas A.

46'

Sub

Mutyaba T. In: Okello A.

Out: Mutyaba T.

46'

Sub

Ssekiganda R. In: Byaruhanga B.

Out: Ssekiganda R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Uganda advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%

Uganda

20%

Draws

22%

South Sudan

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence

Uganda carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Uganda a 58% chance of winning this.
Uganda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Uganda, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%

Uganda Clean Sheet 68%

South Sudan Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Uganda	South Sudan
Matches Played	26	28
Wins	12	5
Draws	5	8
Losses	9	15
Goals Scored	1.31	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.27	1.68
Expected Goals (xG)	1.15	1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

South Sudan vs Uganda

1:2

Oct 11, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs South Sudan

1:0

Nov 16, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations

South Sudan vs Uganda

1:0

Nov 12, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs South Sudan

1:0

Aug 2, 2019 African Nations Championship

Uganda vs South Sudan

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugabi B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.88

Avg xA / game 0.57

South Sudan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.65

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 95 / 100

South Sudan 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Uganda South Sudan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda scored in 81% of their last 26 games.

South Sudan has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Uganda remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: South Sudan has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS South Sudan

0.63 Goals Scored 0.83

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.67

63% Over 1.5 67%

50% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)

05 Oct

Uganda

1 : 1

D.R. Congo

02 Oct

D.R. Congo

0 : 2

Uganda

29 Sept

Uganda

1 : 0

Libya

24 Sept

Tunisia

1 : 1

Uganda

30 Dec

Uganda

1 : 3

Nigeria

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South Sudan

(Away)

29 Sept

South Sudan

0 : 5

Egypt

25 Sept

Malawi

2 : 1

South Sudan

29 Mar

South Sudan

0 : 1

Djibouti

26 Mar

Djibouti

0 : 4

South Sudan

25 Nov

Syria

2 : 0

South Sudan

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