Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ukraine vs Belgium

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Estadio Enrique Roca, Murcia
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Sub
Konoplya Y. In: Sych O.
Out: Konoplya Y.
40' Event
Lukaku R.
Assist: De Bruyne K.
62'
Sub
Sych O. In: Yarmolyuk Y.
Out: Sych O.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Ukraine advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ukraine
15%
Draws
49%
Belgium
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Belgium come out ahead of Ukraine on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Belgium arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ukraine, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 12%
Belgium Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ukraine Belgium
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.43 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.46 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.87 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Belgium vs Ukraine
3:0
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Belgium
3:1
Jun 26, 2024 Euro
Ukraine vs Belgium
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutsulyak O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vanat V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.43

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Lukaku R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ukraine 30 / 100
Belgium 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ukraine Belgium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ukraine scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Belgium's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Solid form: Ukraine remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ukraine VS Belgium
0.86 Goals Scored 2.75
0.71 Goals Conceded 0.88
43% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ukraine

(Home)
25 Sept
Hungary
0 : 1
Ukraine
07 Jun
Denmark
2 : 1
Ukraine
31 May
Poland
0 : 2
Ukraine
31 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 0
Albania
26 Mar
Ukraine
1 : 3
Sweden
Page 1 of 6

Belgium

(Away)
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Turkey 6
Hungary 1
Ukraine 3
Belgium 4
Austria 1
Serbia 3
Greece 3
Scotland 1