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Ukraine vs Sweden

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadi Ciutat de València
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ukraine play Sweden in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ukraine averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Sweden averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Ukraine won 3, Sweden won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 26, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Ukraine and 1.44 for Sweden. This points to a Ukraine double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Ukraine
15%
Draws
40%
Sweden
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ukraine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Ukraine picked up more points recently compared to Sweden.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 16%
Sweden Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ukraine Sweden
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.43 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 World Championship
Ukraine vs Sweden
1:3
Jun 29, 2021 Euro
Sweden vs Ukraine
1:2
Jun 11, 2012 Euro
Ukraine vs Sweden
2:1
Aug 10, 2011 Friendly International
Ukraine vs Sweden
0:1
Feb 9, 2011 International Tournament (Cyprus)
Sweden vs Ukraine
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Ponomarenko M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Sweden Compare

Top Goalscorer Gyökeres V.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ukraine 44 / 100
Sweden 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ukraine Sweden

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ukraine or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ukraine attacking → ← attacking Sweden

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ukraine scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Sweden let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Ukraine went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sweden lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 47
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00