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Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ulinzi Stars host Mara Sugar in the Premier League. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Mara Sugar have shipped 0.96 goals a game lately, while Ulinzi Stars have conceded 1.13 and scored 1.08. Head-to-head, Ulinzi Stars have won 1 to Mara Sugar's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 11, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.51 - 0.26) back Mara Sugar to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ulinzi Stars
20%
Draws
23%
Mara Sugar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ulinzi Stars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Mara Sugar haven't matched Ulinzi Stars's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ulinzi Stars's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Ulinzi Stars Clean Sheet 20%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulinzi Stars Mara Sugar
Matches Played 24 24
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.08 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 0.26
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar
0:0
Feb 22, 2026 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Ulinzi Stars
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar
1:2
May 4, 2025 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Ulinzi Stars
1:1
Jan 12, 2025 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulinzi Stars 42 / 100
Mara Sugar 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulinzi Stars Mara Sugar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulinzi Stars found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (24 games).

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Ulinzi Stars has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Mara Sugar has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ulinzi Stars VS Mara Sugar
0.63 Goals Scored 0.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 13%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulinzi Stars

(Home)
31 May
Posta Rangers
0 : 1
Ulinzi Stars
27 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 0
Tusker
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 5

Mara Sugar

(Away)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)