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Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker Prediction & H2H Stats

Kenya Kenya

FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Ulinzi Stars Logo

Ulinzi Stars

1 - 2
FT
Tusker Logo

Tusker

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Kapaito E.
42' Event
Odhiambo S.
90' Event
Mwakasaba J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ulinzi Stars
20%
Draws
40%
Tusker
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tusker come out ahead of Ulinzi Stars on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Ulinzi Stars taking it.
  • Tusker arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tusker, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Ulinzi Stars Clean Sheet 68%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulinzi Stars Tusker
Matches Played 25 26
Wins 9 13
Draws 4 3
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.08 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.57 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
0:0
May 27, 2026 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
2:0
May 3, 2026 FKF Mozzart Bet Cup
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
1:2
Dec 5, 2025 Premier League
Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars
1:0
Jan 25, 2025 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulinzi Stars Compare

Top Goalscorer Odhiambo S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.44
Avg xA / game 0.28

Tusker Compare

Top Goalscorer Kapaito E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mwakasaba J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulinzi Stars 46 / 100
Tusker 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulinzi Stars Tusker

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulinzi Stars's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 25 recent games.

Tusker let in goals in 62% of their last 26 matches.

Ulinzi Stars has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Ulinzi Stars VS Tusker
0.14 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulinzi Stars

(Home)
31 May
Posta Rangers
0 : 1
Ulinzi Stars
27 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 0
Tusker
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 5

Tusker

(Away)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Kakamega Homeboyz 0
Ulinzi Stars 1
Tusker 1
Kariobangi Sharks 0
Posta Rangers 0
Nairobi United 2
KCB 3
Chebaiywa Lions 0
KUTA Collection 0
Shabana 1
Police FC 1
BB Bread 0
3K FC 0
Bandari 2
Mfalme 5
Muranga 1
Quarter-finals
Ulinzi Stars 1
Tusker 2
Nairobi United 0
KCB 1
Shabana 0
Police FC 1
Bandari 5
Mfalme 2
Semi-finals
Tusker 1
KCB 0
Police FC 1
Bandari 0
Final
Tusker 2
Police FC 1
KCB 0
Bandari 2