Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulsan Citizen vs Daejeon Korail

South Korea South Korea

K3 League Ulsan Complex Stadium, Ulsan
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Hwang Joon-Seok

AI Match Summary

Daejeon Korail in this K3 League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Daejeon Korail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Ulsan Citizen
15%
Draws
37%
Daejeon Korail
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ulsan Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Daejeon Korail lately — more wins on the board than Ulsan Citizen.
  • Ulsan Citizen are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Ulsan Citizen Clean Sheet 68%
Daejeon Korail Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulsan Citizen Daejeon Korail
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 13 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.06 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.09 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen
0:1
May 1, 2026 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
0:1
Jul 5, 2025 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
1:2
Mar 1, 2025 K3 League
Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen
3:0
Sep 28, 2024 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Daejeon Korail
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulsan Citizen Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Daejeon Korail Compare

Top Goalscorer Hwang Joon-Seok
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulsan Citizen 50 / 100
Daejeon Korail 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulsan Citizen Daejeon Korail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ulsan Citizen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulsan Citizen's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Daejeon Korail has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Ulsan Citizen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ulsan Citizen VS Daejeon Korail
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulsan Citizen

(Home)
11 Sept
Daejeon Korail
0 : 1
Ulsan Citizen
05 Sept
Ulsan Citizen
1 : 2
Gyeongju KHNP
30 Aug
Ulsan Citizen
2 : 1
Busan Kyotong
23 Aug
Jeonbuk 2
0 : 1
Ulsan Citizen
19 Aug
Ulsan Citizen
0 : 1
Gwangju FC
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Daejeon Korail

(Away)
11 Sept
Daejeon Korail
0 : 1
Ulsan Citizen
05 Sept
Changwon
0 : 1
Daejeon Korail
29 Aug
Daejeon Korail
2 : 1
Yangpyeong
23 Aug
Siheung Citizen
2 : 0
Daejeon Korail
25 Jul
Pocheon
1 : 1
Daejeon Korail
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 35:19 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 38:19 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 31:17 38
4 Busan Kyotong 22 10 7 5 39:26 37
5 Gyeongju KHNP 22 8 8 6 32:29 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 44:36 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 39:35 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 23:24 28
9 Gangneung 22 7 6 9 20:30 27
10 Changwon 22 6 8 8 24:27 26
11 Yeoju Citizen 22 6 7 9 24:28 25
12 Mokpo 22 4 9 9 19:35 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 27:43 17
14 Jeonbuk 2 22 1 7 14 22:49 10
Relegation - K3 League (Relegation)