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Ultramarina vs Santa Maria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cape Verde Cape Verde

Campeonato Nacional 2009
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Nacional 2009 game between Ultramarina and Santa Maria finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ultramarina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ultramarina
35%
Draws
32%
Santa Maria
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ultramarina come out ahead of Santa Maria on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato Nacional 2009 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Ultramarina Clean Sheet 17%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ultramarina Santa Maria
Matches Played 35 5
Wins 10 0
Draws 8 2
Losses 17 3
Goals Scored 1.26 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2009 Campeonato Nacional
Ultramarina vs Santa Maria
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ultramarina 30 / 100
Santa Maria 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ultramarina Santa Maria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ultramarina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Santa Maria conceded in 100% of 5 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Ultramarina's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Difficult form: Santa Maria registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ultramarina VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ultramarina

(Home)
24 May
Ultramarina
0 : 0
Sanjoanenses
18 May
Boavista da Praia
3 : 0
Ultramarina
11 May
Ultramarina
1 : 1
Academica Praia
02 May
Palmeira
3 : 0
Ultramarina
26 Apr
Mindelense
2 : 1
Ultramarina
Page 1 of 7

Santa Maria

(Away)
13 Jun
Santa Maria
0 : 2
Onze Unidos
09 Jun
Ultramarina
4 : 0
Santa Maria
06 Jun
Academica Praia
2 : 2
Santa Maria
30 May
Foguetoes
3 : 3
Santa Maria
23 May
Santa Maria
1 : 2
Mindelense

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academica Praia 5 4 1 0 10:5 13
2 Mindelense 5 4 0 1 13:4 12
3 Ultramarina 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
4 Onze Unidos 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
5 Santa Maria 5 0 2 3 6:13 2
6 Foguetoes 5 0 1 4 3:15 1
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2009 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Praia 5 4 1 0 11:1 13
2 SC do Porto Novo 5 3 0 2 9:6 9
3 Vulcanico 5 2 1 2 3:4 7
4 Morabeza 5 2 1 2 4:8 7
5 Estrela dos Amadores 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
6 Academica Boavista 5 0 1 4 2:9 1
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2009 (Play Offs)