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Ulverstone U21 vs Burnie United

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Tasmania Northern Championship
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AI Match Summary

The Tasmania Northern Championship game between Ulverstone U21 and Burnie United finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ulverstone U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ulverstone U21
15%
Draws
28%
Burnie United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ulverstone U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Ulverstone U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ulverstone U21 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Ulverstone U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Burnie United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulverstone U21 Burnie United
Matches Played 20 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 3 2
Losses 6 20
Goals Scored 2.45 2.3
Goals Conceded 1.9 3.87
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Burnie United vs Ulverstone U21
0:2
Jun 19, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Ulverstone U21 vs Burnie United
4:2
Apr 10, 2026 Tasmania Northern Championship
Ulverstone U21 vs Burnie United
4:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulverstone U21 30 / 100
Burnie United 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulverstone U21 Burnie United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burnie United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulverstone U21 found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (20 games).

Defensive concern: Burnie United conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.33 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ulverstone U21 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ulverstone U21 VS Burnie United
1.75 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 4.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulverstone U21

(Home)
29 Aug
Northern Rangers
4 : 0
Ulverstone U21
22 Aug
Ulverstone U21
4 : 3
Riverside Olympic U21
15 Aug
Burnie United
0 : 2
Ulverstone U21
08 Aug
Ulverstone U21
2 : 0
Somerset
31 Jul
Ulverstone U21
3 : 2
Launceston United U21
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Burnie United

(Away)
29 Aug
Riverside Olympic U21
0 : 3
Burnie United
22 Aug
Burnie United
3 : 0
Launceston City U21
15 Aug
Burnie United
0 : 2
Ulverstone U21
08 Aug
Burnie United
4 : 10
Northern Rangers
01 Aug
Somerset
2 : 0
Burnie United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Rangers 21 20 0 1 130:24 60
2 Devonport U21 21 16 2 3 107:27 50
3 Ulverstone U21 20 11 3 6 49:38 36
4 Launceston City U21 20 9 0 11 32:39 27
5 Somerset 20 7 2 11 40:59 23
6 Burnie United 21 7 2 12 52:79 23
7 Riverside Olympic U21 20 5 0 15 28:76 15
8 Launceston United U21 21 2 1 18 19:115 7
Promotion - NPL Tasmania 2027 (Main)