Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulyanovsk vs Neftekhimik

Russia Russia

FNL Trud Stadium, Ulyanovsk
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ulyanovsk host Neftekhimik in the FNL. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Ulyanovsk at 0.88 goals for, 1.5 against; Neftekhimik at 1.25 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Ulyanovsk slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Neftekhimik. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Ulyanovsk
33%
Draws
40%
Neftekhimik
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Neftekhimik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neftekhimik lately — more wins on the board than Ulyanovsk.
  • Neftekhimik are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 17%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulyanovsk Neftekhimik
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Ulyanovsk
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Neftekhimik
1:4
Nov 20, 2022 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Ulyanovsk
1:2
Nov 2, 2022 Russian Cup
Neftekhimik vs Ulyanovsk
1:2
Jul 30, 2022 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Neftekhimik
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulyanovsk 28 / 100
Neftekhimik 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulyanovsk Neftekhimik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Ulyanovsk's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Neftekhimik has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Ulyanovsk remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ulyanovsk VS Neftekhimik
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulyanovsk

(Home)
19 Jul
Torpedo Moscow
3 : 1
Ulyanovsk
11 Jul
Ulyanovsk
1 : 2
Yenisey
02 Jul
Veles Moscow
0 : 2
Ulyanovsk
28 Jun
S. Kostroma
1 : 1
Ulyanovsk
26 Jun
Baltika
3 : 0
Ulyanovsk
Page 1 of 6

Neftekhimik

(Away)
19 Jul
Arsenal Tula
0 : 1
Neftekhimik
11 Jul
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Veles Moscow
04 Jul
Neftekhimik
3 : 3
Kamaz
01 Jul
Kamaz
2 : 3
Neftekhimik
28 Jun
Krylya Sovetov Samara
1 : 1
Neftekhimik
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1S. Kostroma22005:16
2Pari Nizhny Novgorod22006:36
3Torpedo Moscow22004:16
4Veles Moscow22002:06
5Ufa21105:24
6Shinnik Yaroslavl21104:24
7Ural21013:13
8Neftekhimik21011:13
9Chelyabinsk21013:23
10Arsenal Tula21012:23
11Yenisey21012:43
12Tekstilshtik20113:41
13PFC Sochi20112:41
14R. Volgograd10012:40
15SKA Khabarovsk10011:30
16Ulyanovsk20022:50
17Kamaz20022:50
18Leningradets20020:50
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)