Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Trud Stadium, Ulyanovsk
Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Kostin A.
45'
Rakhmanov D.
46'
Sub
Kosogorov A. In: Malyarov K.
Out: Kosogorov A.

AI Match Summary

Shinnik Yaroslavl in this FNL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shinnik Yaroslavl.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ulyanovsk
28%
Draws
50%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Shinnik Yaroslavl

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Shinnik Yaroslavl have won more games recently than Ulyanovsk.
  • Model gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulyanovsk Shinnik Yaroslavl
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 9 12
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 0.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0:1
Sep 7, 2025 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
2:0
Feb 21, 2024 Club Friendly
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
1:0
Apr 8, 2023 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
2:2
Sep 18, 2022 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulyanovsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Shinnik Yaroslavl Compare

Top Goalscorer Kornyushin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulyanovsk 23 / 100
Shinnik Yaroslavl 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulyanovsk Shinnik Yaroslavl

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ulyanovsk scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Shinnik Yaroslavl's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Ulyanovsk has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ulyanovsk VS Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulyanovsk

(Home)
19 Jul
Torpedo Moscow
3 : 1
Ulyanovsk
11 Jul
Ulyanovsk
1 : 2
Yenisey
02 Jul
Veles Moscow
0 : 2
Ulyanovsk
28 Jun
S. Kostroma
1 : 1
Ulyanovsk
26 Jun
Baltika
3 : 0
Ulyanovsk
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Shinnik Yaroslavl

(Away)
19 Jul
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0
Leningradets
12 Jul
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 2
PFC Sochi
30 Jun
CSKA Moscow
1 : 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
16 May
Chelyabinsk
2 : 2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11 May
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1
Torpedo Moscow
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rodina Moscow341911458:2868
2Fakel Voronezh34208644:2268
3Ural34187951:3161
4R. Volgograd341511847:2656
5Kamaz341213946:3449
6Yenisey3413101137:3549
7S. Kostroma341213946:4149
8Shinnik Yaroslavl341115834:2848
9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
17Saratov345111816:4426
18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)