Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Metallurg
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ulytau play Yelimay Semey in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ulytau averaged 1.04 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. Yelimay Semey averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Ulytau won 1, Yelimay Semey won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Ulytau and 1.31 for Yelimay Semey. This points to a Yelimay Semey double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ulytau
27%
Draws
40%
Yelimay Semey
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Yelimay Semey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Ulytau picked up more points recently compared to Yelimay Semey.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Ulytau Clean Sheet 18%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulytau Yelimay Semey
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.04 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Premier League
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
0:3
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulytau Compare

Top Goalscorer Bugulov G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Yelimay Semey Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulytau 33 / 100
Yelimay Semey 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulytau Yelimay Semey

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Yelimay Semey or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ulytau attacking → ← attacking Yelimay Semey

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulytau scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Yelimay Semey let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Ulytau went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Yelimay Semey lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 46
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ordabasy16124028:940
2Kairat Almaty18116134:1239
3Okzhetpes1676321:2127
4Yelimay Semey1675424:1926
5FC Astana1675422:1726
6Aktobe1674520:1525
7Ulytau1665513:1523
8Atyrau1639412:1318
9Zhetysu Taldykorgan1646621:2418
10Zhenis1646613:1918
11Kaisar Kyzylorda1739513:1918
12Kyzylzhar17431017:2515
13Tobol1643916:2415
14Kaspij Aktau16421012:2014
15Altai1627711:1813
16Ertis Pavlodar1618714:2111