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UM Escobedo vs Atletico Albericia

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3
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AI Match Summary

UM Escobedo play Atletico Albericia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, UM Escobedo averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Atletico Albericia averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, UM Escobedo won 2, Atletico Albericia won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for UM Escobedo and 1.50 for Atletico Albericia. This points to a UM Escobedo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
UM Escobedo
20%
Draws
35%
Atletico Albericia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UM Escobedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • UM Escobedo picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Albericia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 16%
Atletico Albericia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UM Escobedo Atletico Albericia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 2 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.8 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Atletico Albericia
3:2
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Albericia vs UM Escobedo
2:1
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Albericia vs UM Escobedo
0:2
Sep 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Atletico Albericia
2:2
Feb 4, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Albericia vs UM Escobedo
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pena G. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ruiz S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Atletico Albericia Compare

Top Goalscorer Setien L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 44 / 100
Atletico Albericia 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UM Escobedo Atletico Albericia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: UM Escobedo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UM Escobedo attacking → ← attacking Atletico Albericia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UM Escobedo scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Atletico Albericia let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

UM Escobedo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Albericia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 44
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gimnastic de Torrelavega34265386:1583
2CD Laredo34218563:2871
3CD Tropezon34214950:2767
4Guarnizo34199647:2666
5UM Escobedo342121165:4365
6Vimenor34178947:3659
7Atletico Albericia341751261:4556
8Cayon CD341751250:4156
9Torina341581139:4053
10Bezana341381343:3847
11Castro341081644:4738
12Selaya34881832:4432
13SD Revilla34871935:6331
14CD Barquereno34862037:6430
15UC Cartes346101828:5228
16CD Colindres346101827:4728
17CD Montanas del Pas34682035:8726
18SD Noja34472322:6819