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UM Escobedo vs Cayon CD

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Cueto B.
63'
Diaz Recio A.
65' Event
Fontan E.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between UM Escobedo and Cayon CD finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UM Escobedo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
UM Escobedo
30%
Draws
47%
Cayon CD
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cayon CD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • UM Escobedo's 1.62 goals per match outpaces what Cayon CD have produced (1.41).
  • Win probability leans Cayon CD's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 13%
Cayon CD Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UM Escobedo Cayon CD
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 4 3
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.62 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Cayon CD
3:0
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs UM Escobedo
0:1
Apr 15, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Cayon CD
1:2
Dec 18, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs UM Escobedo
1:0
May 2, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Cayon CD vs UM Escobedo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cueto B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Cayon CD Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 19 / 100
Cayon CD 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UM Escobedo Cayon CD

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cayon CD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UM Escobedo's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cayon CD conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

UM Escobedo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UM Escobedo VS Cayon CD
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

UM Escobedo

(Home)
03 Oct
Solares
0 : 0
UM Escobedo
26 Sept
UM Escobedo
2 : 1
Selaya
20 Sept
CD Laredo
2 : 0
UM Escobedo
12 Sept
UM Escobedo
0 : 3
Bezana
05 Sept
Torina
1 : 1
UM Escobedo
Page 1 of 6

Cayon CD

(Away)
03 Oct
Velarde
0 : 1
Cayon CD
27 Sept
Cayon CD
1 : 1
UD Samano
19 Sept
Atletico Mineros
0 : 2
Cayon CD
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
05 Sept
Cayon CD
0 : 1
Vimenor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)