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UM Escobedo vs CD Montanas del Pas

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3
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AI Match Summary

UM Escobedo play CD Montanas del Pas in the Tercera RFEF - Group 3. UM Escobedo are favorites here. Recently, UM Escobedo averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. CD Montanas del Pas averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.37 conceded. In past meetings, UM Escobedo won 2, CD Montanas del Pas won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 3:7. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for UM Escobedo and 0.94 for CD Montanas del Pas. This points to a UM Escobedo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
UM Escobedo
15%
Draws
22%
CD Montanas del Pas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UM Escobedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • UM Escobedo picked up more points recently compared to CD Montanas del Pas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 24%
CD Montanas del Pas Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UM Escobedo CD Montanas del Pas
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 18 6
Draws 2 7
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.81 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Montanas del Pas vs UM Escobedo
3:7
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs CD Montanas del Pas
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UM Escobedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Fontan E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

CD Montanas del Pas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UM Escobedo 62 / 100
CD Montanas del Pas 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UM Escobedo CD Montanas del Pas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UM Escobedo Win (1)
Secondary Pick UM Escobedo & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.82
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UM Escobedo attacking → ← attacking CD Montanas del Pas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UM Escobedo scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

CD Montanas del Pas let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 8.00 goals.

UM Escobedo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

CD Montanas del Pas lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 25
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gimnastic de Torrelavega34265386:1583
2CD Laredo34218563:2871
3CD Tropezon34214950:2767
4Guarnizo34199647:2666
5UM Escobedo342121165:4365
6Vimenor34178947:3659
7Atletico Albericia341751261:4556
8Cayon CD341751250:4156
9Torina341581139:4053
10Bezana341381343:3847
11Castro341081644:4738
12Selaya34881832:4432
13SD Revilla34871935:6331
14CD Barquereno34862037:6430
15UC Cartes346101828:5228
16CD Colindres346101827:4728
17CD Montanas del Pas34682035:8726
18SD Noja34472322:6819