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Stadium Background

Umm Mughad vs Hay Al Wadi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Umm Mughad in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Umm Mughad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Umm Mughad
20%
Draws
36%
Hay Al Wadi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Umm Mughad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hay Al Wadi lately — more wins on the board than Umm Mughad.
  • Umm Mughad are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 18%
Hay Al Wadi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm Mughad Hay Al Wadi
Matches Played 23 37
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 17
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Hay Al Wadi
2:0
Feb 1, 2025 Premier League
Umm Mughad vs Hay Al Wadi
1:1
Jan 20, 2025 Premier League
Hay Al Wadi vs Umm Mughad
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm Mughad 36 / 100
Hay Al Wadi 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm Mughad Hay Al Wadi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umm Mughad scored in 78% of their last 23 games.

Hay Al Wadi has conceded goals in 73% of their last 37 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Umm Mughad has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Umm Mughad VS Hay Al Wadi
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm Mughad

(Home)
09 Jun
Umm Mughad
3 : 1
Alfalah Atbra
05 Jun
Madani
3 : 1
Umm Mughad
01 Jun
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 0
Umm Mughad
28 May
Umm Mughad
2 : 1
Hilal El-Fasher
24 May
Umm Mughad
0 : 3
Al Hilal Omdurman II
Page 1 of 5

Hay Al Wadi

(Away)
09 Jun
Hilal El-Fasher
0 : 0
Hay Al Wadi
06 Jun
Alfalah Atbra
1 : 3
Hay Al Wadi
01 Jun
Al Merreikh II
4 : 0
Hay Al Wadi
29 May
Madani
3 : 3
Hay Al Wadi
23 May
Hay Al Wadi
0 : 2
Hilal Alsahil
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal Omdurman II 7 7 0 0 16:1 21
2 Al Merreikh II 7 6 0 1 21:4 18
3 Hilal Alsahil 7 3 2 2 10:6 11
4 Madani 7 3 2 2 13:11 11
5 Umm Mughad 7 3 0 4 10:15 9
6 Hilal El-Fasher 7 1 2 4 4:7 5
7 Hay Al Wadi 7 1 2 4 6:14 5
8 Alfalah Atbra 7 0 0 7 2:24 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)