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UNAM Pumas vs Pachuca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Nathan Silva
56' Event
Carrillo J.
62'
Kenedy R.

AI Match Summary

UNAM Pumas in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
UNAM Pumas
30%
Draws
47%
Pachuca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pachuca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • UNAM Pumas haven't matched Pachuca's recent run of results.
  • Pachuca are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Pachuca arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Pachuca, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
UNAM Pumas Clean Sheet 15%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UNAM Pumas Pachuca
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Pachuca
0:3
May 18, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Pachuca
1:0
May 15, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
0:2
Nov 21, 2025 Liga MX
Pachuca vs UNAM Pumas
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UNAM Pumas Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrillo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Pachuca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UNAM Pumas 15 / 100
Pachuca 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UNAM Pumas Pachuca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pachuca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UNAM Pumas scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Pachuca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

UNAM Pumas has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

UNAM Pumas VS Pachuca
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UNAM Pumas

(Home)
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3
Atletico San Luis
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
29 Aug
Club Tijuana
2 : 0
UNAM Pumas
Page 1 of 6

Pachuca

(Away)
27 Sept
Santos Laguna
1 : 0
Pachuca
21 Sept
Pachuca
2 : 2
Club Tijuana
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
05 Sept
Juarez
0 : 2
Pachuca
29 Aug
Pachuca
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2