Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025

Match Events

53'

Ajanaku H.

63'

Kasprzyk D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Unia Tarnow host Chelmianka Chelm in the III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025. Chelmianka Chelm go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Unia Tarnow at 0 goals for, 2.5 against; Chelmianka Chelm at 2.25 for, 0.75 against. Past meetings favor Unia Tarnow slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 25, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.97 vs 2.38, favoring Chelmianka Chelm. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Unia Tarnow

22%

Draws

60%

Chelmianka Chelm

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Chelmianka Chelm lately — more wins on the board than Unia Tarnow.
60% — that's where the model lands on Chelmianka Chelm taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Unia Tarnow Clean Sheet 10%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Unia Tarnow	Chelmianka Chelm
Matches Played	27	34
Wins	2	19
Draws	3	8
Losses	22	7
Goals Scored	0	2.25
Goals Conceded	2.5	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Unia Tarnow vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 45% - 41% Cards: 3 - 2

3:0

Nov 2, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Unia Tarnow

Possession: 48% - 57% Cards: 3 - 3

3:2

Mar 2, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Unia Tarnow

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 0 - 0

1:2

Aug 12, 2023 III Liga - Group IV

Unia Tarnow vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 42% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

3:0

Apr 22, 2023 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Unia Tarnow

Possession: 40% - 59% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Unia Tarnow Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajanaku H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Chelmianka Chelm Compare

Top Goalscorer Kasprzyk D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Unia Tarnow 18 / 100

Chelmianka Chelm 57 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Unia Tarnow Chelmianka Chelm

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Chelmianka Chelm's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 34 matches.

Unia Tarnow scored in 48% of their last 27 games.

Recent resilience: Unia Tarnow stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Unia Tarnow VS Chelmianka Chelm

0 Goals Scored 2.25

2.5 Goals Conceded 0.75

50% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 38%

50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sandecja Nowy S.	34	22	8	4	65:31	74
2	Podhale Nowy Targ	34	21	5	8	67:43	68
3	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	20	5	9	76:42	65
4	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	19	6	9	55:40	63
5	Avia Swidnik	34	18	8	8	77:44	62
6	Korona Kielce II	34	17	10	7	71:50	61
7	Star Starachowice	34	16	7	11	61:46	55
8	Biala Podlaska	34	15	8	11	59:42	53
9	Chelmianka Chelm	34	16	5	13	74:62	53
10	Wisloka Debica	34	14	4	16	61:55	46
11	Czarni Polaniec	34	11	8	15	52:64	41
12	Wisla II	34	11	8	15	72:60	41
13	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	10	9	15	44:54	39
14	Wislanie Skawina	34	10	9	15	41:60	39
15	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	10	7	17	50:68	37
16	Wiazownica	34	7	9	18	38:70	30
17	Lewart Lubartow	34	5	4	25	31:85	19
18	Unia Tarnow	34	2	4	28	28:106	10