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Uniao Barbarense vs Francana

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uniao Barbarense play Francana in the Paulista A3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uniao Barbarense averaged 1.37 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Francana averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Uniao Barbarense won 1, Francana won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 11, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Uniao Barbarense and 0.88 for Francana. This points to a Uniao Barbarense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Uniao Barbarense
35%
Draws
23%
Francana
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Uniao Barbarense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Uniao Barbarense picked up more points recently compared to Francana.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Uniao Barbarense Clean Sheet 25%
Francana Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Barbarense Francana
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 16 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.37 0.94
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Paulista A3
Uniao Barbarense vs Francana
3:1
Apr 14, 2024 Paulista A4
Francana vs Uniao Barbarense
0:0
Apr 6, 2024 Paulista A4
Uniao Barbarense vs Francana
0:0
Feb 7, 2024 Paulista A4
Francana vs Uniao Barbarense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Barbarense Compare

Top Goalscorer Giovani Alvisi
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Francana Compare

Top Goalscorer Jhonata
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Barbarense 43 / 100
Francana 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Barbarense Francana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uniao Barbarense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao Barbarense attacking → ← attacking Francana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Barbarense scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Francana let in goals in 74% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 1.25 goals.

Uniao Barbarense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Francana lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 37
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Portuguesa Santista15120326:936
2Marilia1595123:632
3Rio Preto EC1585224:1329
4XV de Jau1583416:1127
5Rio Claro1574419:1625
6Uniao Barbarense1566316:1424
7EC Sao Bernardo1565422:1523
8Paulista1565420:1323
9Uniao Sao Joao1564516:1522
10Catanduva FC1556416:1521
11Bandeirante1546515:1918
12Rio Branco SP1544713:2416
13Francana15311113:2210
14Itapirense15231014:269
15Desportivo151598:258
16Uniao Suzano15121210:285