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Uniao Da Serra vs Marinhense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ruivo P.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Uniao Da Serra and Marinhense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Uniao Da Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Uniao Da Serra
20%
Draws
10%
Marinhense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uniao Da Serra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Uniao Da Serra come out ahead of Marinhense on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Uniao Da Serra taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Uniao Da Serra Clean Sheet 68%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Da Serra Marinhense
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 8
Draws 8 10
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs Marinhense
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Uniao Da Serra
1:1
Sep 22, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Marinhense vs Uniao Da Serra
0:0
Feb 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Uniao Da Serra
1:0
Nov 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs Marinhense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Da Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruivo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Marinhense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Da Serra 95 / 100
Marinhense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Da Serra Marinhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UNI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Da Serra found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Marinhense has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Uniao Da Serra remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Marinhense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Da Serra VS Marinhense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Da Serra

(Home)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 0
Uniao Da Serra
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
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Marinhense

(Away)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)