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Uniao Montemor vs Moncarapachense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group F
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uniao Montemor play Moncarapachense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group F. Moncarapachense are favorites here. Recently, Uniao Montemor averaged 0.66 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Moncarapachense averaged 1 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. In past meetings, Uniao Montemor won 0, Moncarapachense won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 23, 2022 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Uniao Montemor and 0.74 for Moncarapachense. This points to a Moncarapachense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Uniao Montemor
25%
Draws
60%
Moncarapachense
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Moncarapachense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Uniao Montemor picked up more points recently compared to Moncarapachense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 0.74 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Uniao Montemor Clean Sheet 27%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Montemor Moncarapachense
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 3 11
Draws 5 10
Losses 21 11
Goals Scored 0.66 1
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.91

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group F
Uniao Montemor vs Moncarapachense
0:1
Oct 24, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group F
Moncarapachense vs Uniao Montemor
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Montemor 19 / 100
Moncarapachense 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Montemor Moncarapachense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moncarapachense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Moncarapachense & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao Montemor attacking → ← attacking Moncarapachense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Montemor scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Moncarapachense let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Uniao Montemor went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Moncarapachense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

14 Points in last 5 43
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Olhanense16106032:1536
2Moncarapachense1696131:1233
3Louletano1695237:1532
4Juv. Evora1666426:1224
5Esperanca de Lagos1654720:2519
6Serpa1644818:3216
7Imortal162689:2612
8Uniao Montemor16331012:2812
9FC Barreirense1616910:309
10Pinhalnovense00000:00