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Uniao PR vs Campo Mourao

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 3 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uniao PR play Campo Mourao in the Paranaense 3 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uniao PR averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Campo Mourao averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. In past meetings, Uniao PR won 0, Campo Mourao won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 20, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Uniao PR and 1.44 for Campo Mourao. This points to a Campo Mourao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Uniao PR
15%
Draws
54%
Campo Mourao
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Campo Mourao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Uniao PR picked up more points recently compared to Campo Mourao.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Uniao PR Clean Sheet 16%
Campo Mourao Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao PR Campo Mourao
Matches Played 30 14
Wins 6 4
Draws 3 4
Losses 21 6
Goals Scored 0.73 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Paranaense 3
Campo Mourao vs Uniao PR
0:0
Sep 6, 2025 Paranaense 3
Uniao PR vs Campo Mourao
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao PR 31 / 100
Campo Mourao 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao PR Campo Mourao

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Campo Mourao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Campo Mourao & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao PR attacking → ← attacking Campo Mourao

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao PR scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Campo Mourao let in goals in 79% of their last 14 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Uniao PR went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Campo Mourao lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 16
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Prudentopolis844014:616
2Rolandia EC843112:915
3Araucaria842220:1114
4Iraty821510:197
5Hope Internacional80265:162
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CA Cambe63218:411
2City London62316:79
3Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense60245:122
4Gremio Maringa623111:7-4
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uniao PR63125:510
2Vere FC62228:58
3Oeste Brasil62228:98
4Campo Mourao61326:86