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Uniao Sao Joao vs Nacional SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2023
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Uniao Sao Joao advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Uniao Sao Joao
33%
Draws
40%
Nacional SP
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacional SP haven't matched Uniao Sao Joao's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Nacional SP taking it.
  • Uniao Sao Joao have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uniao Sao Joao, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 20%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Sao Joao Nacional SP
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2023 Paulista A4
Uniao Sao Joao vs Nacional SP
3:1
Aug 26, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0
Aug 19, 2023 Paulista A4
Uniao Sao Joao vs Nacional SP
0:0
Jul 29, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0
Jul 22, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Sao Joao 28 / 100
Nacional SP 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Sao Joao Nacional SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Sao Joao's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nacional SP conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Uniao Sao Joao stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Sao Joao VS Nacional SP
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Sao Joao

(Home)
22 Jul
Uniao Sao Joao
0 : 0
Piracicaba
04 Jul
Santos
3 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
21 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 2
EC Sao Bernardo
14 Mar
Paulista
3 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
11 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Francana
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Nacional SP

(Away)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Francana1
Catanduva FC5
Rio Branco SP0
Taquaritinga1
Nacional SP1
Uniao Sao Joao3
Uniao Barbarense0
Sao-Carlense4
Semi-finals
Catanduva FC3
Taquaritinga2
Uniao Sao Joao4
Sao-Carlense3
Final
Catanduva FC0
Uniao Sao Joao2