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Stadium Background

Union Comercio vs Ayacucho - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 2 Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia, Tarapoto
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Union Comercio host Ayacucho in the Liga 2. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Union Comercio have averaged 1.32 scored and 0.74 conceded recently, against Ayacucho's 1.21 scored and 1.43 conceded. Head-to-head, Union Comercio have won 2 to Ayacucho's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Nov 13, 2022, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.19, favoring Union Comercio. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Union Comercio
15%
Draws
39%
Ayacucho
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Union Comercio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Union Comercio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Union Comercio taking it.
  • Regular Liga 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 20%
Ayacucho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Comercio Ayacucho
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.32 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2022 Liga 1
Ayacucho vs Union Comercio
2:1
Nov 6, 2022 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
3:0
Oct 19, 2019 Liga 1
Ayacucho vs Union Comercio
1:1
May 4, 2019 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
0:1
Oct 4, 2018 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Comercio 42 / 100
Ayacucho 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Comercio Ayacucho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Comercio scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Ayacucho has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Union Comercio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Union Comercio VS Ayacucho
1.38 Goals Scored 2
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Comercio

(Home)
06 Oct
Union Minas
4 : 1
Union Comercio
27 Sept
Union Comercio
2 : 0
Pirata
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0
U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1
Union Comercio
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Ayacucho

(Away)
06 Oct
Pirata
2 : 0
Ayacucho
26 Sept
Ayacucho
1 : 0
Union Minas
12 Sept
Ayacucho
0 : 2
Sport Huancayo 2
04 Sept
Comerciantes FC
5 : 1
Ayacucho
22 Aug
Ayacucho
7 : 1
Binacional
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Comercio 2 1 0 1 3:4 5
2 Union Minas 2 1 0 1 4:2 4
3 Pirata 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
4 Ayacucho 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llacuabamba 2 1 1 0 4:0 5
2 ADA Jaen 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
3 Sport Huancayo 2 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Comerciantes FC 2 0 0 2 0:5 2
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carlos Mannucci 1 1 0 0 7:0 5
2 U. San Martin 2 1 0 1 2:8 3
3 Tacna Heroica 1 0 1 0 2:2 2
4 Alianza Huanuco 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams