Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union Magdalena vs Cartagena

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Carreno A.
35' Event
Arrieta G.
62'
Lerma J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Union Magdalena and Cartagena finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Magdalena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Union Magdalena
15%
Draws
46%
Cartagena
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cartagena come out ahead of Union Magdalena on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 14%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Magdalena Cartagena
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 14 15
Draws 5 11
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.49
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Cartagena
3:0
May 9, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Union Magdalena
2:1
Mar 23, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Union Magdalena
2:1
Aug 25, 2024 Primera B
Cartagena vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Mar 11, 2024 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Cartagena
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Magdalena Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrieta G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cartagena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Magdalena 31 / 100
Cartagena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Magdalena Cartagena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Magdalena found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Cartagena has conceded goals in 69% of their last 35 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Union Magdalena stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Union Magdalena VS Cartagena
0.63 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Magdalena

(Home)
18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2
Union Magdalena
12 Sept
Real Cundinamarca
2 : 1
Union Magdalena
05 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 2
Barranquilla
01 Sept
Envigado
0 : 1
Union Magdalena
29 Aug
Union Magdalena
0 : 2
Quindio
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Cartagena

(Away)
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Inter Palmira
2 : 1
Cartagena
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
29 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 3
Tigres Futbol Club
24 Aug
Leones
1 : 6
Cartagena
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Envigado 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
2 Quindio 6 3 1 2 4:3 10
3 Inter Palmira 6 1 4 1 3:3 7
4 Tigres Futbol Club 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cartagena 6 4 1 1 8:6 13
2 Union Magdalena 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
3 Barranquilla 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
4 Bogota 6 0 3 3 3:8 3
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Play Offs)