Sport Picks
Union Magdalena vs Real Santander
Colombia
Primera B Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta 
Match Events
34'
34'
Lerma J.
51'
51'
Giraldo J.
57'
57'
Sub
Giraldo J. In: Surmay O.
Out: Giraldo J.
AI Match Summary
The Primera B game between Union Magdalena and Real Santander finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Magdalena.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Real Santander
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Union Magdalena come out ahead of Real Santander on wins alone.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Union Magdalena taking it.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Union Magdalena have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 18%
Real Santander Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Union Magdalena | Real Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 4 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 26, 2026 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Real Santander
2:0
May 29, 2025 Copa Colombia
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena
0:2
Sep 1, 2024 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Real Santander
4:0
Mar 16, 2024 Primera B
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena
2:0
Apr 6, 2022 Copa Colombia
Real Santander vs Union Magdalena
1:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Union Magdalena Compare
Top Goalscorer Lerma J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Narvaez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Real Santander Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Union Magdalena 36 / 100
Real Santander 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Union Magdalena Real Santander
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Real Santander conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Union Magdalena found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).
Union Magdalena went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Union Magdalena VS Real Santander
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Union Magdalena
(Home) 18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2 Union Magdalena
12 Sept
Real Cundinamarca
2 : 1 Union Magdalena
05 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 2 Barranquilla
01 Sept
Envigado
0 : 1 Union Magdalena
29 Aug
Union Magdalena
0 : 2 Quindio
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 2 Barranquilla
29 Aug
Union Magdalena
0 : 2 Quindio
31 Jul
Union Magdalena
0 : 0 Orsomarso
21 May
Union Magdalena
0 : 0 Bogota
12 May
Union Magdalena
3 : 0 Cartagena
Page 1 of 3
Real Santander
(Away) 22 Sept
Real Santander
0 : 0 Orsomarso
13 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
2 : 0 Real Santander
05 Sept
Quindio
0 : 0 Real Santander
29 Aug
Real Santander
3 : 1 Inter Palmira
24 Aug
Real Santander
1 : 0 Independiente Valle del Cauca
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
2 : 0 Real Santander
05 Sept
Quindio
0 : 0 Real Santander
06 Aug
Atletico F.C.
2 : 2 Real Santander
26 Jul
Cartagena
5 : 1 Real Santander
16 May
Alianza
3 : 0 Real Santander
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 38 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27:15 | 32 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20:10 | 31 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:14 | 29 |
| 5 | Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23:15 | 26 |
| 6 | Bogota | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | 23 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21:20 | 20 |
| 8 | Tigres Futbol Club | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15:14 | 20 |
| 9 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13:14 | 19 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors de Cali | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Cundinamarca | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14:19 | 13 |
| 14 | Leones | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
| 15 | Atletico F.C. | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12:23 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9:23 | 7 |
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)
