Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Szczesnowicz L.
40'
40'
Hernandez A.
55'
55'
Hernandez A.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Union Sur Yaiza in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Union Sur Yaiza.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Union Sur Yaiza
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Union Sur Yaiza have won more games recently than Arucas.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Union Sur Yaiza taking it.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Union Sur Yaiza have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Union Sur Yaiza Clean Sheet 20%
Arucas Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Union Sur Yaiza | Arucas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 16 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Arucas
3:0
Nov 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Union Sur Yaiza
1:1
Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Union Sur Yaiza
0:1
Sep 30, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Arucas
3:1
Feb 4, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Arucas
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Union Sur Yaiza Compare
Top Goalscorer Szczesnowicz L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hernandez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Arucas Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Union Sur Yaiza 49 / 100
Arucas 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Union Sur Yaiza Arucas
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Union Sur Yaiza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arucas has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Union Sur Yaiza went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Union Sur Yaiza scored in 47% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Union Sur Yaiza VS Arucas
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Union Sur Yaiza
(Home) 26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0 UD San Fernando
19 Sept
Las Palmas C
4 : 2 Union Sur Yaiza
11 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
0 : 1 San Bartolome
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0 Union Sur Yaiza
03 May
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 1 Telde
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26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0 UD San Fernando
11 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
0 : 1 San Bartolome
03 May
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 1 Telde
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0 Arucas
19 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
1 : 0 Mensajero
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Arucas
(Away) 10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2 Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1 Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1 Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0 Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0 San Bartolome
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10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2 Arucas
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1 Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0 Arucas
12 Apr
UD San Fernando
1 : 1 Arucas
02 Apr
Lanzarote
3 : 1 Arucas
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Paso | 34 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 51:19 | 67 |
| 2 | UD San Fernando | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 49:23 | 66 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51:31 | 63 |
| 4 | Tamaraceite | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 56:36 | 63 |
| 5 | Panaderia | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 47:33 | 55 |
| 6 | Las Palmas C | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58:42 | 54 |
| 7 | Tenerife C | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 49:46 | 52 |
| 8 | Villa Santa Brigida | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:36 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Union Tenerife | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:32 | 45 |
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37:43 | 39 |
| 12 | CD Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44:40 | 39 |
| 13 | Union Sur Yaiza | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:43 | 38 |
| 14 | San Bartolome | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30:55 | 36 |
| 15 | Arucas | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 31:47 | 33 |
| 16 | Herbania | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39:58 | 32 |
| 17 | SD Tenisca | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:68 | 25 |
| 18 | Telde | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 30:71 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
