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Union Sur Yaiza vs Atletico Victoria

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Union Sur Yaiza play Atletico Victoria in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Union Sur Yaiza averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. Atletico Victoria averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Union Sur Yaiza won 1, Atletico Victoria won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 27, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Union Sur Yaiza and 1.31 for Atletico Victoria. This points to a Union Sur Yaiza double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Union Sur Yaiza
25%
Draws
37%
Atletico Victoria
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Union Sur Yaiza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Union Sur Yaiza picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Victoria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Union Sur Yaiza Clean Sheet 18%
Atletico Victoria Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Sur Yaiza Atletico Victoria
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.53

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Atletico Victoria
2:0
Dec 17, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Atletico Victoria vs Union Sur Yaiza
0:0
May 2, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Atletico Victoria
0:1
Dec 14, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Atletico Victoria vs Union Sur Yaiza
2:0
Mar 8, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Atletico Victoria
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Sur Yaiza Compare

Top Goalscorer Bassele M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Atletico Victoria Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Sur Yaiza 38 / 100
Atletico Victoria 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Sur Yaiza Atletico Victoria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Union Sur Yaiza or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Union Sur Yaiza attacking → ← attacking Atletico Victoria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Sur Yaiza scored in 47% of their last 32 games.

Atletico Victoria let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Union Sur Yaiza went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Victoria lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 29
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tenerife B34248268:2280
2Lanzarote34229364:2875
3Union Sur Yaiza342111262:1974
4Las Palmas B34228474:2474
5Panaderia341510952:3955
6Arucas341114951:4147
7CD Santa Ursula3410131135:3843
8San Bartolome3410121243:4242
9Villa Santa Brigida349141141:3641
10Tamaraceite341181542:5641
11CD Marino341091542:5339
12CD Buzanada349121329:4239
13Herbania349111430:4638
14Ibarra34991635:4536
15Atletico Victoria34881833:5332
16Teror34682029:6726
17Gran Tarajal344121821:5424
18CD La Cuadra34642426:7222