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United States Virgin Islands vs Bahamas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Upper Bethlehem
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Hall H.
13' Event
St Louis J.
Assist: Shaffer A.
36'
Farrell Q.

AI Match Summary

United States Virgin Islands in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored United States Virgin Islands.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
United States Virgin Islands
15%
Draws
0%
Bahamas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: United States Virgin Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • United States Virgin Islands have won more games recently than Bahamas.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on United States Virgin Islands taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
United States Virgin Islands Clean Sheet 13%
Bahamas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric United States Virgin Islands Bahamas
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 3
Draws 4 4
Losses 20 21
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 2.41 3.39
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Bahamas
3:1
Oct 13, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands
3:1
Sep 4, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Bahamas
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

United States Virgin Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer St Louis J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joseph R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Bahamas Compare

Top Goalscorer Rahming C. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

United States Virgin Islands 84 / 100
Bahamas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
United States Virgin Islands Bahamas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick United States Virgin Islands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bahamas conceded in 96% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.67 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Bahamas has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

United States Virgin Islands went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

United States Virgin Islands VS Bahamas
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 4.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

United States Virgin Islands

(Home)
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
29 Mar
Puerto Rico
2 : 0
United States Virgin Islands
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
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Bahamas

(Away)
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Cayman Islands
1 : 0
Bahamas
26 Mar
Bahamas
1 : 3
Anguilla
15 Nov
Bahamas
0 : 6
British Virgin Islands
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