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United States Virgin Islands vs Sint Maarten

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

United States Virgin Islands play Sint Maarten in the CONCACAF Nations League 2022/2023. Sint Maarten are favorites here. Recently, United States Virgin Islands averaged 0.87 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Sint Maarten averaged 1.77 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. In past meetings, United States Virgin Islands won 1, Sint Maarten won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 28, 2023 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for United States Virgin Islands and 2.00 for Sint Maarten. This points to a Sint Maarten double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
United States Virgin Islands
21%
Draws
56%
Sint Maarten
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Sint Maarten

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • United States Virgin Islands picked up more points recently compared to Sint Maarten.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
United States Virgin Islands Clean Sheet 10%
Sint Maarten Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric United States Virgin Islands Sint Maarten
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 12
Draws 4 5
Losses 22 13
Goals Scored 0.87 1.77
Goals Conceded 2.4 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Sint Maarten
1:2
Jun 3, 2022 CONCACAF Nations League
Sint Maarten vs United States Virgin Islands
1:1
Mar 27, 2016 Caribbean Cup
Sint Maarten vs United States Virgin Islands
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

United States Virgin Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Kendall K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sint Maarten Compare

Top Goalscorer Lake G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cox J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

United States Virgin Islands 23 / 100
Sint Maarten 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
United States Virgin Islands Sint Maarten

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sint Maarten Win (2)
Secondary Pick Sint Maarten & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

United States Virgin Islands attacking → ← attacking Sint Maarten

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

United States Virgin Islands scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Sint Maarten let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

United States Virgin Islands went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sint Maarten lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 41
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sint Maarten632119:911
2Bonaire631212:1110
3Turks and Caicos Islands630310:169
4United States Virgin Islands61145:104
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Saint Kitts and Nevis43109:410
2Aruba41125:54
3Saint Martin40222:72
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Saint Lucia44008:212
2Anguilla40222:52
3Dominica40222:52
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Puerto Rico440017:212
2Cayman Islands40223:102
3British Virgin Islands40223:112