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UP Plasencia vs Moralo

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2022/2023 game between UP Plasencia and Moralo finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moralo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
UP Plasencia
35%
Draws
55%
Moralo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Moralo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Moralo a 55% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Moralo have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 57.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
UP Plasencia Clean Sheet 18%
Moralo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UP Plasencia Moralo
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 6 20
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 4
Goals Scored 1.03 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.52 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2024 Club Friendly
UP Plasencia vs Moralo
0:2
Mar 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Moralo
0:2
Nov 19, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs UP Plasencia
2:1
Feb 13, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Moralo
0:2
Oct 10, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs UP Plasencia
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UP Plasencia 10 / 100
Moralo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UP Plasencia Moralo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moralo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: UP Plasencia scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Moralo conceded in 53% of 32 recent games.

UP Plasencia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UP Plasencia VS Moralo
0.4 Goals Scored 1.13
1.6 Goals Conceded 0.63
40% Over 1.5 75%
40% Over 2.5 13%
20% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UP Plasencia

(Home)
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0
UP Plasencia
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Gevora
4 : 2
UP Plasencia
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
31 Aug
Jaraiz
0 : 0
UP Plasencia
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Moralo

(Away)
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Moralo
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0
CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0
Moralo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Llerenense 30 18 10 2 52:22 64
2 CD Azuaga 30 19 5 6 58:29 62
3 Moralo 30 15 10 5 52:24 55
4 Olivenza FC 30 15 8 7 46:33 53
5 Jerez CF 30 13 10 7 39:25 49
6 Arroyo 30 13 7 10 30:31 46
7 CF Trujillo 30 12 8 10 28:28 44
8 SP Villafranca 30 12 7 11 34:33 43
9 CD Calamonte 30 12 6 12 38:33 42
10 Fuente de Cantos 30 9 12 9 23:28 39
11 Pueblonuevo 30 7 11 12 36:41 32
12 Montehermoso 30 8 7 15 31:53 31
13 Don Alvaro 30 7 6 17 27:54 27
14 Miajadas 30 7 5 18 23:41 26
15 UP Plasencia 30 6 6 18 31:43 24
16 La Estrella 30 5 6 19 30:60 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2022/2023 (Play Offs)