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UPDF FC vs Maroons

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Hamz Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Zzinda H.

AI Match Summary

UPDF FC in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored UPDF FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
UPDF FC
20%
Draws
44%
Maroons
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maroons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • UPDF FC haven't matched Maroons's recent run of results.
  • Model gives UPDF FC a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 68%
Maroons Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UPDF FC Maroons
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.73 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Premier League
Maroons vs UPDF FC
0:0
Oct 15, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
1:2
Apr 16, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Maroons
2:1
Sep 15, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs UPDF FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Zzinda H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Maroons Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 50 / 100
Maroons 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UPDF FC Maroons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UPDF FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maroons let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

UPDF FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Maroons lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS Maroons
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

UPDF FC

(Home)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
Page 1 of 6

Maroons

(Away)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
08 Sept
Maroons
1 : 2
Blacks Power
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
3 Villa 4 3 1 0 7:1 10
4 Blacks Power 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Lugazi 4 2 0 2 4:6 6
8 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
9 Express FC 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
10 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
11 Vipers 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
12 Maroons 4 1 0 3 5:6 3
13 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
14 Kitara 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
15 Mbarara City 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
16 Kataka 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
17 Kigezi HomeBoyz 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
18 Ntugasaze 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)