Sport Picks

Uganda

Premier League Bombo Stadium

UPDF FC

3 - 1

Mbarara City

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Ochen E.

36'

Kanyike M.

58'

Kigozi S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UPDF FC in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored UPDF FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

UPDF FC

33%

Draws

40%

Mbarara City

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Mbarara City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Mbarara City have won more games recently than UPDF FC.
Model gives Mbarara City a 40% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
UPDF FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

UPDF FC Clean Sheet 21%

Mbarara City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UPDF FC	Mbarara City
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	5	6
Draws	7	9
Losses	18	15
Goals Scored	1.13	1
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Premier League

UPDF FC vs Mbarara City

Possession: 52% - 48% Cards: 3 - 3

3:1

Oct 3, 2025 Premier League

Mbarara City vs UPDF FC

Possession: 50% - 54% Cards: 1 - 0

0:1

Feb 17, 2025 Premier League

Mbarara City vs UPDF FC

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

Nov 6, 2024 Premier League

UPDF FC vs Mbarara City

Possession: 50% - 48% Cards: 1 - 0

2:1

Apr 26, 2024 Premier League

Mbarara City vs UPDF FC

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kigozi S.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Ochen E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Mbarara City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanyike M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 29 / 100

Mbarara City 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UPDF FC Mbarara City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MBA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbarara City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: UPDF FC scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

UPDF FC went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS Mbarara City

1.13 Goals Scored 1

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vipers	30	19	10	1	55:17	67
2	Kampala City	30	19	5	6	46:22	62
3	Villa	30	18	7	5	47:17	61
4	Kitara	30	16	8	6	43:22	56
5	Entebbe UPPC	30	14	9	7	30:20	51
6	NEC FC	30	13	12	5	31:22	51
7	Police	30	13	8	9	42:35	47
8	Maroons	30	9	11	10	26:27	38
9	BUL	30	9	10	11	30:33	37
10	Express FC	30	9	10	11	28:31	37
11	Uganda Revenue	30	5	16	9	27:30	31
12	Mbarara City	30	6	9	15	26:46	27
13	Lugazi	30	5	10	15	19:36	25
14	UPDF FC	30	5	7	18	24:41	22
15	Calvary	30	4	9	17	14:39	21
16	Buhimba	30	4	3	23	16:66	15