Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tolosa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Tolosa have won more games recently than Urgatzi.
- Model gives Tolosa a 85% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Urgatzi Clean Sheet 20%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Urgatzi | Tolosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 3 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 25 | 21 |
| Goals Scored | 0.53 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 3.03 | 2.09 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.79 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 20, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urgatzi vs Tolosa
1:1
Nov 28, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs Urgatzi
4:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Urgatzi 28 / 100
Tolosa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Urgatzi Tolosa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tolosa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tolosa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.
Away concern: Tolosa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Urgatzi scored in 47% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Tolosa
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Urgatzi
(Home) 12 Jun
SCD Durango
1 : 0 Urgatzi
05 Jun
Urgatzi
1 : 2 Sodupe
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1 Urgatzi
23 May
Urgatzi
0 : 2 Lagun Onak
15 May
Santurtzi
4 : 1 Urgatzi
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05 Jun
Urgatzi
1 : 2 Sodupe
23 May
Urgatzi
0 : 2 Lagun Onak
08 May
Urgatzi
1 : 4 SCD Durango
24 Apr
Urgatzi
1 : 1 CD Ariznabarra
11 Apr
Urgatzi
0 : 3 Santurtzi
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Tolosa
(Away) 29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4 Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1 Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3 Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2 Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4 Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 7
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1 Tolosa
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2 Tolosa
26 Mar
Pasaia
1 : 0 Tolosa
12 Mar
San Ignacio
3 : 1 Tolosa
20 Feb
Urduliz FT
1 : 1 Tolosa
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika Club | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 39:16 | 43 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad C | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 48:27 | 40 |
| 3 | Sestao | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 40:13 | 39 |
| 4 | SD Deusto | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 30:24 | 36 |
| 5 | Santutxu FC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 20:23 | 29 |
| 6 | Beasain | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 20:14 | 27 |
| 7 | Tolosa | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21:26 | 24 |
| 8 | Aurrera Ondarroa | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23:31 | 20 |
| 9 | Balmaseda | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 22:27 | 18 |
| 10 | Somorrostro | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20:31 | 17 |
| 11 | Urgatzi | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11:62 | 10 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vitoria | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 20:4 | 35 |
| 2 | Urduliz FT | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 28:18 | 35 |
| 3 | Pasaia | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22:14 | 34 |
| 4 | Basconia | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 24:15 | 30 |
| 5 | Anaitasuna FT | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 20:19 | 30 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 19:19 | 29 |
| 7 | Santurtzi | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18:27 | 23 |
| 8 | SCD Durango | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 10 | CD Ariznabarra | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12:28 | 16 |
| 11 | Lagun Onak | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17:31 | 15 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Second stage)
Relegation - Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
