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Ursaria vs CF Talavera

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Gallardo Rodriguez E.
90' Event
Alcalde J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 game between Ursaria and CF Talavera finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Ursaria
20%
Draws
36%
CF Talavera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ursaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Ursaria carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ursaria a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%
CF Talavera Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursaria CF Talavera
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 9
Draws 5 11
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
CF Talavera vs Ursaria
3:0
Oct 22, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs CF Talavera
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ursaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Alcalde J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

CF Talavera Compare

Top Goalscorer Gallardo Rodriguez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursaria 77 / 100
CF Talavera 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursaria CF Talavera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ursaria's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

CF Talavera has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Ursaria stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS CF Talavera
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursaria

(Home)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

CF Talavera

(Away)
27 Sept
CF Talavera
2 : 1
Valladolid Promesas
20 Sept
Getafe B
1 : 1
CF Talavera
13 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 0
Real Madrid C
09 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 2
Navalcarnero
06 Sept
RSD Alcala
3 : 0
CF Talavera
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)