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Ursus Warszawa vs Huragan Morag - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Tarnowski P.
67' Event
Jurczynski P.
90' Event
Szerszen S.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2020/2021 game between Ursus Warszawa and Huragan Morag finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursus Warszawa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ursus Warszawa
30%
Draws
41%
Huragan Morag
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Huragan Morag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ursus Warszawa come out ahead of Huragan Morag on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Ursus Warszawa Clean Sheet 12%
Huragan Morag Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursus Warszawa Huragan Morag
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 9 3
Draws 7 10
Losses 21 17
Goals Scored 1.32 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.11 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Huragan Morag
3:0
Oct 24, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Huragan Morag vs Ursus Warszawa
0:0
Mar 28, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Huragan Morag
0:0
Aug 24, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Huragan Morag vs Ursus Warszawa
3:0
May 19, 2019 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Huragan Morag
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ursus Warszawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarnowski P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jurczynski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Huragan Morag Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursus Warszawa 35 / 100
Huragan Morag 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursus Warszawa Huragan Morag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Huragan Morag Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Huragan Morag's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ursus Warszawa scored in 70% of their last 37 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Ursus Warszawa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ursus Warszawa VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
2.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursus Warszawa

(Home)
15 Feb
Biala Podlaska
1 : 1
Ursus Warszawa
08 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
4 : 1
Mszczonowianka Mszczonow
01 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 6
Victoria Sulejowek
20 Jul
LKS Lomza
0 : 0
Ursus Warszawa
17 Feb
Warta Sieradz
2 : 0
Ursus Warszawa
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Huragan Morag

(Away)
26 Feb
Powisle Dzierzgon
3 : 5
Huragan Morag
29 Jan
DKS Dobre Miasto
3 : 2
Huragan Morag
22 Jan
Zatoka Braniewo
2 : 2
Huragan Morag
18 Jun
Huragan Morag
6 : 4
Wysokie Mazowieckie
12 Jun
Olimpia Zambrow
2 : 1
Huragan Morag
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